While the Iran nuclear deal is directly involved with the US, it has consequences that fall onto the entire Middle East, specifically nations neighboring Iran. For example Saudi Arabia, Israel, and Lebanon are all affected by the deal in some way either directly or indirectly. The impacts range from economic devastation, to disintegrated alliance. One of the underlying issues is that the deal was not built on trust. This means that individual states feel no certainty towards the potential of what could happen. To a large degree, the security and stability of the Middle East depends on whether Iran will uphold the agreement or break it.
There are a lot of potential scenarios that may arise in Lebanon as a result of the JCPOA. Lebanon, which is officially known as the Lebanese Republic, has been very influential in the Arab world regardless of its small size. Thanks to tourism, agriculture, commerce, and banking, the country has experienced a period of relative calm and great prosperity after the the Lebanese Civil War, which lasted from 1975 to 1990, but the political world of Lebanon has drastically changed since (US Department of state, 2012). Hezbollah emerged during the Civil War and through time it became the powerful entity that it is today. Hezbollah is basically a "state within a state", and has grown into an organization with seats in the Lebanese government, a radio and a satellite TV station, social services and large-scale military deployment of fighters beyond Lebanon's borders. They deployed their militia in both Syria and Iraq to fight or train local forces to fight against ISIS. Hezbollah's military strength had an enormous growth in the recent past and the organization is now considered more powerful than the Lebanese Army. Every country has its own view on Hezbollah, The European Union, New Zealand and the United Kingdom have proscribed Hezbollah's military wing as a terrorist organization, while making a distinction with Hezbollah's political wing. Russia considers Hezbollah a legitimate socio-political organization (Al-Monitor, 2016).
Hezbollah has close ties to Iran that are only strengthened by the implementation of the JCPOA. Many say that that Hezbollah will benefit from Iran’s nuclear deal because Iran will be protected under the nuclear umbrella. The nuclear umbrella is a cooperation between nuclear-armed states and non-nuclear-armed states that offers military protection, potentially with nuclear weapons (ILPI, n.d.). Hezbollah and Israel fought each other in the 2006 Lebanon War and as a result of this there is current hostility and a higher risk of war. This means that if Hezbollah uses its presence in Iran to begin a revolution or military movement that leads to war with Israel they will, under the nuclear umbrella, potentially be backed by the U.S. with nuclear weapons and other resources. There is also a general belief that “any agreement between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the West would actually prompt the start of solutions for all the region’s crises, depending on the priority and urgency of the crisis, including the election of a new president in Lebanon (Al-Monitor, 2015)”.
The Linguist List. (n.d.) Language Map: Middle East. Retrieved from http://linguistlist.org/forms/langs/middle-east.cfm
Iran and Israel have had a fluctuating relationship throughout their history, beginning with Israel's independence in 1948, ranging until the present US Iran nuclear deal. Initially, the two nations had solid diplomatic relations for the first 30 years after Israel’s independence. However, the era post-Iranian Revolution has fostered severe tension between the two (Simon n.d). Iran has funded terrorist attacks on Israel, education for Hezbollah, and supports Palestine in the conflict against Israel (Simon n.d).. However, Israel has actively opposed the spread of pan-Arabism and rejects the fundamental beliefs of Iran. As the US and Iran have found an agreement and signed the nuclear deal, it has been outspokenly rejected by the Israeli government. The deal has caused great fear within Israel, and contributes to further instability in the Middle East.
The Israeli perspective is significant because it portrays how stability in the Middle East may be in danger. Also, it elaborates how the US has been one of Israel's closest allies since it’s birth; however, it has now taken an active stand against Israeli policy. The Prime Minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, has called out the nuclear deal, stating that a "terrorist nuclear superpower is born, and it will go down as one of the darkest days in world history” (Booth & Eglash 2015). While rejecting its close ally, the US has instead agreed with Iran, being firmly against Israel on this particular issue. In other words, the US has rejected the Israeli and Iran differences, and instead illustrated how the strength and significance of the US allows it to ally with both opposing nations. However, the US's will of completing the agreement has created questions of fear and has caused potential instability in the region. The Israelis fear that the sanctions being lifted from Iran (due to the nuclear agreement) will open up possibilities for further terrorist development, which could target Israel. This fear originates from statements such as the ones from Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, claiming that Israel will no longer exist within the next 25 years. However, critics of Israel have called out the unreasonable but existent possibility of Israeli forces taking action against Iran for the purpose of protecting their state. Israel is not a member of the UN Non-Proliferation Treaty (Booth & Eglash 2015), which allows them potential freedom to develop their nuclear arsenal without drawing widespread international attention.
Granlund, D.(Illustrator). (n.d.) “It’s not the job of the president of the United States to solve every problem in the Middle East.(digital image). Retrieved from http://batr.org/autonomy/081115.html.
Saudi Arabia, a country considered to be an ally of the United States and rival to Iran, has felt a great deal of anxiety in relation to the nuclear deal. According to Adel al-Jubeir, the Saudi foreign minister, “Iran’s record has been one of war and destruction, terrorism, destabilisation, interference in the affairs of other countries,” and is not to be trusted with an influx of new revenues since the lifting of international sanctions (Black, 2016). The nuclear deal with Iran has two major concerning implications for Saudi Arabia: a chance for Iran’s increased economic position, and Iran’s capability of attaining nuclear weapons (Al Jazeera, 2015). The deal will only be in effect for 15 years, and will not destroy the technical capabilities of maintaining nuclear facilities. Either of the two outcomes would strengthen Iran and its allies. Saudi Arabian worries towards Iran have never been primarily focused on the nuclear danger. The Saudis believe the risk of Iranian use of nuclear weapons to be low, as they also believe that they are protected by the American nuclear umbrella. The overarching Saudi concern is their idea that Iran seeks hegemony over the region and will use tactics of terrorism and subversion to achieve their goal. In Saudi’s opinion, the deal worsens the situation because lifting sanctions eliminates Iran’s isolation and gives it more income (Riedel 2016).
For similar reasons to Israel, Saudi Arabia has legitimate fear of the post-sanctions emergence of a powerful Iran, pursuing self-serving policies across the region. Mohammed al-Mohya, a news anchor from the state-run Saudi Channel 1, told The New York Times,“Iran made chaos in the Arab world and will extend further after the agreement, and the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) countries should reduce their confidence in America and turn their focus to Russia and China,”(Elass 2015). This has a greater effect on global politics as weakening relations between Saudi Arabia and the United States lead to stronger Saudi ties with Russia and China. Another major impact on global politics stemmed from the removal of sanctions on Iran which has led to cheap Iranian oil flooding the saturated market, driving down prices. This has not only had economic consequences to Saudi Arabia, but to all of the Gulf states, which are already financially overstretched (Al Jazeera, 2015).
References:
Al-Monitor. (2015, April 8). Will Iranian nuclear deal impact Lebanon? Retrieved from http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/04/iran-us-nuclear-deal-impact-lebanon-election-president.html.
Al-Monitor. (2016, Feb. 16).What Hezbollah stands to gain from Iran’s nuclear deal. Retieved from http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/02/iran-nuclear-deal-hezbollah-support.html.
Al Jazeera. (2015). Why Saudi Arabia and Israel oppose Iran nuclear deal. Al Jazeera. Retrieved from http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/04/saudi-arabia-israel-oppose-iran-nuclear-deal-150401061906177.html
Black, I. (2016). As Iran hails a historic deal, Saudi Arabia looks on with anxiety and irritation. The Guardian. Retrieved from https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jan/18/as-iran-hails-a-historic-deal-saudi-arabia-looks-on-with-anxiety-and-irritation
Booth, W & Eglash, R. (2015, July 7) Israeli leaders condemn Iran deal, “one of darkest days in world history.” The Washington Post.
Council on Foreign Relations. (2014, January 3). Hezbollah. Retrieved from http://www.cfr.org/lebanon/hezbollah-k-hizbollah-hizbullah/p9155
Elass, R. (2015). A roadmap for the Middle East after the Iran nuclear deal. The Guardian. Retrieved from https://www.theguardian.com/world/iran-blog/2015/jul/14/arab-states-react-iran-nuclear-deal
Granlund, D.(Illustrator). (n.d.) “It’s not the job of the president of the United States to solve every problem in the Middle East.(digital image). Retrieved from http://batr.org/autonomy/081115.html.
McLaughlin, E.C. (2015, September 11) Iran’s supreme leader: There will be no such things as Israel in 25 years. CNN. Retrieved from
Riedel, B. (2016). What the Iran deal has meant for Saudi Arabia and regional tensions. Brookings. Retrieved from https://www.brookings.edu/blog/markaz/2016/07/13/what-the-iran-deal-has-meant-for-saudi-arabia-and-regional-tensions/
Simon, S. (n.d) Iran and Israel. The Iran Premier. Retrieved from http://iranprimer.usip.org/resource/iran-and-israel
The Linguist List. (n.d.) Language Map: Middle East. Retrieved from http://linguistlist.org/forms/langs/middle-east.cfm
U.S. Department of State. (2010, March 22). Lebanon. Retrieved from http://www.state.gov/outofdate/bgn/lebanon/149912.htm.
Group Members: Kate Zwigard, Ruben Eriksson, Kiana Hensen, and Jacopo Benatti, Adrion Rutledge
I think that your post did a good job of outlining the issue in it's historical and social context. I think it would have been interesting to include more about the historical roots of the Israel-Iran conflict.
ReplyDeleteVery well written post with great and relevant information! I really enjoyed reading about this issue! Great job!
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